CHAPTER 9
1. a. False. b. True. c. True. d. False. e. False. f. True. g. True. h. True.
2. a. The unemployment rate will increase by 1% per year when g=0.5%. Unemployment will increase unless the growth rate exceeds the sum of productivity growth and labor force growth.
b. We need growth of 4.25% per year for each of the next four years.
c. Okun’s law is likely to become: ut-ut-1=-0.4*(gyt-5%)
3. a. un= 5%
b. gyt= 3%; gmt=gyt+?t = 11%
c.?ugytgmt
t-1:8%5%3%11%
t:4%9%-7%-3%
t+1:4%5%13%17%
t+2:4%5%3%7%
4. a. ?t-?t-1= -(ut-.05)
ut- ut-1= -.4*(gmt-?t-.03)
b. ?t=6.3%; ut=8.7%
?t+1=1%; ut+1=10.3%
c. u=5%; gy=3%; ?=-3%;
5. a. See text for full answer. Gradualism reduces need for large policy swings, with effects that are difficult to predict, but immediate reduction may be more credible and encourage rapid, favorable changes in inflation expectations. On the other hand, the staggering of wage
decisions suggests that, if the policy is credible, a gradual disinflation is the option consistent with no change in the unemployment rate.
b. Not clear, probably fast disinflation, depending on the features in c.
5. c. Some important features: the degree of indexation, the nature of the wage-setting process, and the initial rate of inflation.
*6. a. un=K/2; sacrifice ratio=.5
b. ?t=10%; ?t+1=8%; ?t+2=6%; ?t+3=4%; ?t+4=2%
c. 5 years; sacrifice ratio=(5 point years of excess unemployment)/(10 percentage point reduction in inflation)=.5
d. ?t=7.5%; ?t+1=4.125%; ?t+2=1.594%; 3 years of higher unemployment for a reduction of
10%: sacrifice ratio=0.3
e. t+1
f. Take measures to enhance credibility.
7. a. Inflation will start increasing.
b. It should let unemployment increase to its new, higher, natural rate.